CBI predicts 'fragile' UK economic recovery

From the BBC:

Growth in the UK economy is set to pick up gradually next year but the economic recovery will be "fragile", a leading business group has said.

The CBI predicts that the UK will exit recession in the fourth quarter of 2009, helped by consumer spending ahead of the VAT rise in January.

But the group says the economy is unlikely to have returned to pre-recession levels by the end of 2011.

It says unemployment will peak at 2.8 million - lower than first forecast.

"Although the first few months of 2010 will be difficult, growth will gradually pick up and increasing confidence and demand will lead the UK into a more positive 2011," said John Cridland, the CBI's deputy director general.

"Consumer spending looks to be slightly more resilient than we first thought, and a weaker pound will help to support export growth.

"However, the economy will be on a fragile path of very slow growth, as we continue to feel the lasting effects of the financial crisis."

Full Article:
BBC News - CBI predicts 'fragile' UK economic recovery

Personally, I think that's a pretty safe fence sitting prediction

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cheers Steve
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