IPad - not a phone, not a lappie.. will it succeed?

From Businessweek:

When it comes to predicting how many iPads Apple Inc. will sell this weekend, Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Gene Munster has little company among Wall Street analysts in making a guess.

In the weeks before Apple began selling the iPhone in 2007, analysts and technology pundits prognosticated about how many would be snapped up in the first few days. With the iPad, Munster is estimating first weekend sales of 200,000 -- a figure some of his rivals say is too difficult to predict.

The sticking point: It’s unclear how consumers will respond to the iPad, an untested category of computer that’s bigger than a smartphone and less powerful than a laptop. Apple is also offering multiple versions of the device, though only three are available on day one.

“This is a big revolutionary device, but it’s a new market,” said Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley in New York. “A lot of potential consumers are still questioning what it may be used for.”

Investors look to new products from Apple Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs to spur sales and profit, which reached a record last quarter on demand for the iPhone and Macintosh computer. Anticipation for the iPad, which goes on sale April 3, helped drive Apple stock to an all-time high of $237.19 today.

Stake Out

Munster, who has recommended buying Apple shares since June 2004, expects iPad sales of 2.8 million in 2010. He’s sending analysts to stake out stores in six cities -- New York, San Francisco, Minneapolis and Wisconsin -- to gauge early demand.

“We’ll measure lines and get a pulse of the excitement,” Munster said. “If we go to the New York store and there are four people, that’s not a good sign.”

Apple, based in Cupertino, California, started taking early orders for the iPad on March 12, offering consumers the choice between home delivery and in-store collection. That will help the company assess demand and figure out where it needs the most inventory...

Full article:

IPad Sales Anyone?s Guess as Analysts Skip Estimates (Update2) - BusinessWeek

...too big for a smart phone, too small for a lappie, not a net book, so is it going to carve out a new niche or be a flash in the pan....

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Have to say i want one, but for gimmick purposes only, not sure it will be a big threat to world change yet, but then Apple have aimed at the gimmick market for years! iPods, iPhones etc, lets face it, there are better (or at least more functions) products in the MP3 arena, so I think it will be down to marketing and the WANT factor!

And that is what they are VERY good at!

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As Victor Meldrew would say, I don't believe it, they're given away iPads to University Students.

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..Like Steve in another thread above, I didn't see where the market was for this. However, I now see it and I think Steve Jobs provides a good analogy.

....CEO Steve Jobs was quoted at the D8 conference last week regarding the future of PCs--referring to all computers with full desktop operating systems, as opposed to tablets or smartphones--saying he clearly sees them fading from mainstream use soon.

"When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular.

"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them."
Full Article

When you think about what most people use PC's/Laptops for he's right. The iPad et al are perfect for the average person (emailing, photos, video etc.) So when they start to come down in price they will become more mainstream than buying a PC or laptop.

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Since getting an iPhone I found I would sit around the house taking care of e-mails and replying to forum posts I normally would forget about until days later if I had to rely on my desktop.

At first I didn't think there was much point in the iPad but after doing some SEO work recently (and in general more business work) I found myself relying more and more on my phone and thinking 'Gah I wish this screen was bigger'. So I came to the conclusion I would really like an iPad, would be great for sitting around the house and keeping up to date with social sites, forums and doing a bit SEO work, as well as all the other consumer uses like music and video I use a lot.

The main things setting me back however are:

• A bit pricey for me at the minute.
• Already paying for 3G on my phone but think if I didn't get a 3G model I would always moan about it so waiting for phone contract to go and get a MiFi service.

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I see the usefulness of the iPhone but not the iPad. iPad is not a laptop, not a phone. I don't see what I would use it for, as it's not really a laptop. Just occasional browsing...or to have the latest thing.

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I struggle with the lack of auxilary connections.
usual up sell marketing trick from apple.
you cant even plug in a mem card for goodness sack.
so in essence you are buying a very expensive touch screen media player.

I dont get the apple cool by association thing.

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